霸刀分享-1月钨市涨幅超30%!矿端供应紧张延续
2026 年 1 月钨市行情引发广泛关注，当月钨价实现全链条暴涨，核心品种涨幅普遍达 24%–34%，部分突破历史高点。在同期商品市场普遍回调的背景下，钨粉“高位企稳”，成为动荡市场中的“压舱石”。
从供给端来看，矿端持续绷紧。一是配额严控，2025 年第一批钨矿开采配额同比减少 6.45%，为 2018 年以来最低值，主产区江西、湖南占全国 75.7%配额，低产区近乎清零；二是品位下滑且成本飙升，全国钨原矿平均品位从 2004 年 0.42%降至 0.28%，处理 300 - 400 吨原矿才能产出 1 吨精矿，主产区开采成本同比涨 40%；三是环保与天气压制开工，1 月江西、湖南遭遇极端雨雪冰冻，矿山开工率不足 50%，赣州地区关停 4 家无证选厂，月供应减少约 1000 吨 WO₃；四是进口近乎归零，哈萨克斯坦 1 月对华钨精矿出口仅 217 吨，同比骤降 76%，海外新增产能有限，2026 - 2030 年全球新增原生钨仅 3.5 - 4.2 万吨金属量，难以弥补缺口。
需求端则呈现传统与新兴双轮驱动、刚性释放的态势。传统领域稳中有升，硬质合金行业受原材料传导影响，华锐精密 1 月内三次涨价，春节前下游企业为规避涨价风险启动阶段性补库。新兴领域更是爆发式增长，光伏钨丝渗透率从 2023 年 15%跃升至 2025 年超 60%（部分数据达 90%），2025 年需求约 8300 吨（+198%），单 GW 组件可降本超 2000 万元；军工需求方面，2025 年中国军工钨制品订单同比 +42%，美国“黄金穹顶计划”拟耗钨 9000 吨，欧盟强军计划推动炮弹产能扩增三倍；高端制造领域，AI 服务器催生直径 0.1mm 以下钨钢微型钻针，年需求超 2000 吨（+15%），新能源汽车模具钨钢刀具用量比燃油车 +25%。
相关数据显示，2026 年 1 月钨产业链主要品种价格均有不同程度涨幅。黑钨精矿（65%）均价达 51.06 万元/吨，涨幅 +26.69%；白钨精矿（65%）均价 50.87 万元/吨，涨幅 +26.76%；仲钨酸铵（APT）报价飙升至 75.14 万元/吨，涨幅 +26.2%；钨粉（≥99.7%）均价 1237.37 元/公斤，涨幅 +24.79%；光伏钨丝（0.8 - 1.0mm）均价 1533.45 元/公斤，涨幅 +24.62%；欧洲钨铁（75%）均价 140.35 美元/千克，涨幅 +29.96%。
综上所述，2026 年 1 月钨市涨幅超 30%的核心动因是“供给刚性收缩 × 需求结构性扩容”的共振结果。矿端在多重因素压制下几无弹性，而新场景打开长期增长空间，使钨脱离传统周期属性，兼具周期底色与成长题材。短期来看，节前备货和库存低位（APT 生产商库存环比 -31%）强化了涨价动能；中长期而言，“越挖越少 + 越管越严”的底层逻辑难以逆转，钨价中枢抬升趋势明确。
Tungsten market increased by over 30% in January! Tight supply from mines continued
The tungsten market in January 2026 has attracted widespread attention, with a full-chain surge in tungsten prices that month, the core varieties generally rising by 24%-34%, and some even breaking through historical highs. Against the backdrop of a general market correction, tungsten powder hasstabilized at a high level" and become the "ballast" of the turbulent market.
From the supply side, the mining end continues to be tight. First, the quota is strictly controlled. In 2025, the batch of tungsten mining quotas decreased by 6.45% year-on-year, the lowest value since 2018, with the main producing Jiangxi and Hunan accounting for 75.7% of the national quota, and the low-grade areas nearly wiped out; second, the grade has declined costs have soared. The average grade of tungsten ore in China has dropped from 0.42% in 2004 to 0.28%, and it takes 300-400 tons of ore to produce 1 ton of concentrate. The mining cost in the main producing areas has increased by 40 year-on-year; third, environmental protection and weather have suppressed the start-up rate. In January, Jiangxi and Hunan encountered extreme rain, snow and, and the mining start-up rate was less than 50%. Ganzhou area closed down 4 illegal beneficiation plants, and the monthly supply decreased by about1000 tons of WO₃; fourth, imports were nearly zero. Kazakhstan's tungsten concentrate exports to China in January only 217, a sharp decrease of 76% year-on-year. Overseas new capacity is limited. From 2026 to 2030, global new primary tungsten will only increase by 35,000-42,000 tons of metal, which is difficult to make up for the.
On the demand side, a dual-wheel drive of traditional and emerging industries and a rigid release of demand are observed. The traditional sector is steadily, and the hard alloy industry has been affected by the transmission of raw materials. Huarui Precision has raised its prices three times within a month, and downstream enterprises have started stageby-stage inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival to avoid the risk of price increases. The emerging sector is experiencing explosive growth. The penetration rate of photovoltaic tungsten wire has jumped from 15% in 2023 to over 60% in 2025 (some data reach 90%), a demand of about 83,000 tons in 2025 ( 198%), and a cost reduction of over 20 million yuan GW of components; in terms of military demand, China's military tungsten orders increased by 42% year-on-year in 2025, the US "Golden Dome Plan" plans to consume 9,000 tons of tungsten, with the EU's strong military plan driving a threefold increase artillery shell production capacity; in the field of high-end manufacturing, AI servers have stimulated the demand for tungsten steel micro-drill bits with a diameter of less 0.1mm, with an annual demand of over 2,000 tons ( 15%), and the use of tungsten steel cutting tools in new energy molds is 25% higher than that of fuel vehicles.
Data show that in January 2026, the prices of the main varieties in the tungsten industry chain all increased to varying. The average price of black tungsten concentrate (65%) reached 510,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.6%; the average price of white tungsten concentrate (65%) was 508,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.76 the price of ammonium paratungstate (APT) soared to 751,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.%; the average price of tungsten powder (≥99.7%) was 1,237.37 yuan/kg, an increase of 2.79%; the average price of photovoltaic tungsten wire (0.8 - 1.0mm) was 1,533.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 24.62%; the average price of European tungsten iron (75%) was 140.35 dollars/kg, an increase of 29.96%.
In summary, the core driving force for the price increase of more than 30% in theungsten market in January 2026 is the resonance result of "rigid supply contraction × structural demand expansion". The mine terminal has almost no elasticity under the of multiple factors, while the new scenario opens up long-term growth space, making tungsten break away from the traditional cycle attribute and have both the bottom color of the cycle the topic of growth. In the short term, the pre-holiday inventory and low inventory (APT manufacturer's inventory decreased by -31% month-on-) strengthen the momentum of price increase; in the long term, the underlying logic of "the less you mine, the less you manage" is difficult to reverse, and the trend tungsten price increase is clear.