霸刀分享-铜价结构性牛市能否持续冲高？
铜价走势引发市场高度关注。当前，铜价正处于由供应约束、新能源需求与宏观流动性共同推动的结构性牛市中，预计后市仍有上行空间。
2025年以来，全球铜价持续刷新历史高位。LME铜价在12月底一度触及12960美元/吨，沪铜主力合约突破10.2万元/吨，年内涨幅超40%。这一轮上涨是供给端扰动常态化与需求端新动能崛起长期共振的结果，叠加货币环境宽松，推动铜从工业金属向“战略资源 + 金融资产”双重属性演进。
从供给端来看，全球主要铜矿产区频发自然灾害和生产事故，如智利El Teniente矿难、印尼Grasberg泥石流等，导致2025年全球铜矿产量同比下滑约4.7%，供应缺口达15万 - 30万吨。同时，矿石品位持续下降，过去30年平均品位降幅达30%，新增项目投产延迟，未来五年年均增速预计不足2%。中国冶炼厂因原料短缺普遍亏损，CTC释放减产10%信号，进一步加剧市场对供应短缺的担忧。
需求端方面，尽管建筑、家电等传统领域需求偏弱，但新能源与AI算力成为核心增长极。光伏与风电年耗铜量超180万吨，新能源汽车单车用铜达80公斤，是传统汽车的3倍，AI数据中心、电网升级及全球能源设施重建带来显著增量需求。
宏观与金融属性也在增强。美联储进入降息周期，全球流动性边际宽松，推升有色金属的金融属性。去美元化趋势深化，各国央行增持黄金的同时，也提升了对铜这类实物资产的战略配置意愿。LME铜库存注销仓单大幅上升，现货升水走高，反映实体抢购与跨市套利行为活跃。
综合来看，铜价已进入结构性牛市通道，短期或有回调压力，但中长期上行趋势不变。随着矿端弹性减弱、能源转型深化以及AI基础设施加速建设，铜的稀缺性与战略地位将持续凸显。在低库存与高风险溢价环境下，一旦地缘或政策出现新扰动，价格有望进一步冲高。
Can the structural bull market in copper prices continue to rise?
the trend of copper prices has drawn high attention from the market. At present, copper prices are in a structural bull market driven by supply constraints, demand for new energy and macro liquidity. It is expected that there will still be upward space in the future.
Since 2025, global copper prices have continuously hit new historical highs. The LME copper price once touched $12,960 per ton at the end of December, and the main contract of Shanghai copper broke through 102,000 yuan per ton, with an increase of more than 40% within the year. This round of price increase is the result of the long-term resonance between the normalization of supply-side disturbances and the rise of new demand-side drivers. Coupled with a loose monetary environment, it has driven copper to evolve from an industrial metal to a dual attribute of "strategic resource + financial asset".
From the supply side, natural disasters and production accidents occur frequently in major copper mining areas around the world, such as the El Teniente mine disaster in Chile and the mudslide in Grasberg, Indonesia. This has led to a year-on-year decline of approximately 4.7% in global copper mine output in 2025, with a supply gap of 150,000 to 300,000 tons. Meanwhile, the grade of ore has been continuously declining, with an average drop of 30% over the past 30 years. The commissioning of new projects has been delayed, and the average annual growth rate over the next five years is expected to be less than 2%. Chinese smelters are generally suffering losses due to raw material shortages. CTC has sent a signal of a 10% production cut, further intensifying market concerns over supply shortages.
On the demand side, although the demand in traditional fields such as construction and home appliances is relatively weak, new energy and AI computing power have become the core growth poles. The annual copper consumption of photovoltaic and wind power exceeds 1.8 million tons. The copper consumption of a single new energy vehicle reaches 80 kilograms, which is three times that of a traditional vehicle. The significant incremental demand brought about by AI data centers, power grid upgrades, and the reconstruction of global energy facilities.
The macro and financial attributes are also strengthening. The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, and global liquidity has marginally eased, boosting the financial attributes of non-ferrous metals. The trend of de-dollarization is deepening. While central banks around the world are increasing their holdings of gold, they are also enhancing their strategic allocation willingness to physical assets such as copper. The number of LME copper inventory cancellation warehouse receipts has risen sharply, and the spot premium has increased, reflecting the active physical buying and cross-market arbitrage activities.
Overall, copper prices have entered a structural bull market channel. There may be short-term downward pressure, but the medium and long-term upward trend remains unchanged. As the elasticity at the mining end weakens, the energy transition deepens, and the construction of AI infrastructure accelerates, the scarcity and strategic position of copper will continue to stand out. In an environment of low inventory and high-risk premiums, once new geopolitical or policy disturbances occur, prices are expected to rise further.