霸刀分享-碳酸锂价格重拾涨势，背后逻辑几何？
碳酸锂价格已明确重拾涨势，引发市场广泛关注。其核心驱动力是节后市场情绪修复叠加刚需补库、上游惜售及海外供应扰动，短期呈现“震荡偏强、重心上移”态势。
当前碳酸锂价格上涨并非单一原因，而是多重利好共振。春节后资金情绪显著回暖，有色金属集体反弹，碳酸锂2月24日单日涨幅达10.56%，主力合约一度站上17万元/吨关口；下游企业节前备货基本结束，节后排产回升带动补库意愿增强，1月动力+储能电池产量同比大增55.9%；锂盐厂延续惜售策略，节前库存去化加快，样本总库存已降至10.29万吨；津巴布韦2月25日起暂停所有锂精矿出口，而中国19%进口锂精矿来自该国，短期加剧供应紧缺预期；美国关税政策波动趋缓，市场预期对美出口壁垒高峰已过，提振产业链情绪信心。
截至2026年2月下旬，电池级碳酸锂现货均价为14.72–16.24万元/吨（2月24日），社会总库存为10.55万吨（环比降2019吨），下游库存为4.37万吨（环比+3058吨），1月国内碳酸锂产量为9.62万吨（同比+51%，环比-2%），动力+储能电池产量（1月）为168.0GWh（同比+55.9%）。库存结构显示“下游主动增库、中上游加速去库”，印证补库真实发生；而产量虽同比高增，但节后检修导致2月供给阶段性收缩，形成“供小于求”的短期格局。
碳酸锂已进入“情绪修复+基本面支撑”的双轮驱动阶段，短期价格中枢持续上移趋势明确。机构普遍上调全年预测，瑞银将2026年国内均价预测上调至17万元/吨，东方证券给出12–20万元/吨宽幅区间，并提示不排除冲高可能。不过，需警惕的是，3月国内生产陆续恢复后，若需求仅持平去年12月，或将转向紧平衡甚至小幅累库，届时价格弹性或收敛。
Lithium carbonate prices regain upward momentum: what is the logic behind it?
Lithium carbonate prices have clearly resumed their upward trend, attracting widespread market attention. The key drivers are the recovery of market sentiment after the holiday, coupled witestocking of rigid demand, upstream hoarding, and disruptions to overseas supply, resulting in a short-term trend of "volatile but firm" prices with a rising center
The current rise in lithium carbonate prices is not due to a single factor, but rather the convergence of multiple positive factors. Post-Lunar New et sentiment significantly improved, with non-ferrous metals rallying collectively; on February 24, lithium carbonate surged by 10.56% in a single dith the main futures contract briefly breaking through the 170,000 yuan/ton mark. Downstream enterprises have largely completed their pre-holiday stockpiling, and recovery in post-holiday production has boosted restocking intentions; in January, the combined output of power and energy storage batteries increased by 55.9% year-on-yLithium salt manufacturers have continued their strategy of withholding supply, accelerating inventory drawdowns before the holiday, with total sample inventory dropping to 102,900 tons. Zimbabuspended all lithium concentrate exports starting February 25, and since China imports 19% of its lithium concentrate from the country, this has exacerbated short-term expectations of suppls. Meanwhile, volatility in U.S. tariff policies has eased, leading the market to anticipate that the peak of export barriers to the U.S. has passed, which has boosted confidence aiment across the industry chain.
As of late February 2026, the spot average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 47,200–162,400 yuan/ton (February 24), with total social inventory at 105,500 tons (down 2,01, downstream inventory at 43,700 tons (up 3,058 tons MoM), domestic lithium carbonate production in Janua 96,200 tons (up 51% YoY, down 2% MoM), and power energy storage battery production in January at 18.0 GWh (up 55.9% YoY). The inventory structure indicates "active downstream inventory building and accelerated destocking in the mid-to-upstream sectors," confirming the occurrence ofg; meanwhile, although production saw high YoY growth, post-holiday maintenance led to a temporary contraction in February supply, creating a short-term "supply shortage
Lithium carbonate has entered a dual-driven phase of "sentiment recovery fundamental support," with a clear trend of a continuously rising price center in th short term. Institutions have generally raised their full-year forecasts; UBS raised its prediction for the domestic average price in 2026 to 1000 yuan/ton, while orient Securities provided a wide range of 120,000–200,000 yuan/ton, noting that a surge cannot e ruled out. However, caution is advised: if demand remains flat with December 2023 levels following the gradual resumption of domestic production in March, the market may shifight balance or even a slight inventory build-up, which could lead to a contraction in price elasticity.