霸刀分享-钨价创历史新高，涨势能否持续
钨价连续突破历史高点引发市场关注。276%的涨幅，远超实体消费增速，这一惊人涨幅的背后有着怎样的供需逻辑与持续性呢？
数据显示，黑钨精矿于2026年1月下旬达53.60万元/吨，较2024年底（约14.25万元/吨）暴涨276%。业内人士分析，此轮涨价并非短期波动，而是资源管控、品位衰减与战略升级三重长期趋势叠加的结果，呈现“供给刚性收缩+新兴需求爆发”的共振特征。
从供给端来看，三重收紧趋势不可逆。一是配额持续压减，2025年第一批钨矿开采总量控制指标为5.8万吨，同比下降6.45%，江西主产区指标减少超10%，湖北等低产区指标归零；二是资源品位加速下滑，全国钨原矿处理品位从2004年的0.42%降至2016年的0.28%，单位精矿开采成本升至10万元以上；三是环保与安全监管趋严，主产区矿山普遍放缓生产节奏，中小矿企停产增多，行业流通规模持续收紧。
需求端则呈现传统与新兴双轮驱动的态势。硬质合金作为主要需求领域（占总需求40%以上），在PCB刀具、数控机床、军工装备等方面刚需稳定，且高端化需求不断拉动高附加值产品的需求。光伏钨丝更是呈现爆发式增长，其渗透率从2025年初的20%跃升至60%，年产60亿米钨丝产能已落地，金刚线母线替代钢丝成为主流。此外，核聚变、航空航天等战略领域对高纯度、高强度钨材的需求激增，进一步放大了结构性缺口。
头部企业方面，厦门钨业运营多处钨矿山，采用自产+采购并行的模式，是APT提纯主力；翔鹭钨业矿山生产节奏放缓，按配额组织生产，光伏钨丝项目已量产；中钨高新在柿竹园技改后新增2000标吨/年产能，其郴州分公司是全球最大APT供应商。不过，尽管企业积极扩产，但新产能爬坡需1 - 2年，且受资源品位与环保审批制约，短期无法对冲供给缺口。
中信证券测算，2025年行业供需缺口已达4679吨。业内普遍认为，供需偏紧格局不仅可持续，且将在2026 - 2027年进一步强化。供给端受多重限制增量几乎为零，需求端光伏钨丝渗透率加速、军工与核聚变等战略需求刚性上升。虽有阶段性回调可能，但价格中枢将持续上移。
Tungsten prices hit a record high, can the upward trend continue
The tungsten price has been breaking historical highs, triggering market attention. With a 276% increase, far exceeding the growth rate of consumption, what is the supply and demand logic and sustainability behind this astonishing increase?
Data show that in early January 2026, black tungsten concentrate reached 36,000 yuan/ton, a staggering 276% increase from the end of 2024 (about 142,50 yuan/ton). Industry insiders analyzed that this round of price increase is not a short-term fluctuation, but the result of the superposition of three long-term trends resource control, grade decay, and strategic upgrade, presenting a resonance characteristic of "rigid contraction of supply outbreak of emerging demand".
From the supply side, the trend of triple tightening is irreversible. First, quotas continue to be reduced, with the total control index the first batch of tungsten mining in 2025 set at 58,000 tons, down 6.45% year-on-, and the indicators for the main production area of Jiangxi decreased by more than 10%, while those for low-production areas such as Hubei were reduced zero; second, the resource grade accelerated its decline, with the national tungsten concentrate processing grade dropping from 0.42% in 2004 to .28% in 2016, and the unit mining cost of refined concentrate rising to more than 100,000 yuan; third, protection and safety supervision are becoming stricter, and mines in the main production areas are generally slowing down their production pace, with more small and medium-sized enterprises suspending production and the industry's circulation scale continues to tighten.
On the demand side, there is a dual-wheel drive pattern of traditional and emerging demand. As the main demand (accounting for more than 40% of the total demand), the rigid demand for PCB cutters, CNC machine tools, and military equipment is stable, the demand for high-end products continues to pull up the demand for high-value-added products. Photovoltaic tungsten wire has shown explosive growth, with penetration rate leaping from 20% at the beginning of 2025 to 60%, and the annual production capacity of 6 billion meters of tsten wire has been put into operation, replacing steel wire with diamond line mother wire becoming the mainstream. In addition, the demand for high-purity and high-strength tung materials in strategic areas such as nuclear fusion and aerospace has increased dramatically, further amplifying the structural gap.
Tungsten giants: Xiamen Tungsten, which operates multiple tungsten mines, adopts a parallel model of self-production and procurement and is a main player in APT purification; Xianglu Tungsten has slowed down its mining production pace, and organizes production based on quotas, with its photovoltaic tungsten wire project in mass production; Central Tungsten & New Materials has added 2,000 standard tons/year of capacity after the technical at Shizhuyuan, with its Chenzhou branch being the world's largest APT supplier. However, despite the companies' active expansion, it takes 1- years for new capacity to ramp up, and it is constrained by the ore grade and environmental approvals, so it cannot fill the supply gap in the short term.
CITIC Securities estimates that the industry supply and demand gap has reached 4,679 tons in 2025. The industry generally that the pattern of tight supply and demand is not only sustainable, but will also be further strengthened in 2026-2027. The supply side is almost due to multiple constraints, and the demand side is accelerating the penetration of photovoltaic tungsten wire, and the rigid increase of strategic demand such as military and nuclear. Although there may be a stage of adjustment, the price center will continue to shift up.