霸刀分享-美委冲突对有色金属及贵金属市场的影响
近日，2026年初美国与委内瑞拉地缘政治紧张局势急剧升级，从外交施压迫使政权更迭演变为低烈度军事冲突。这一“黑天鹅”事件不仅冲击拉美地缘格局，也迅速传导至全球大宗商品市场，尤其在贵金属与能源领域引发剧烈波动。
从市场表现来看，黄金、白银等贵金属价格显著上涨，短期避险情绪与长期去美元化趋势共同推动涨势。具体而言，黄金受美联储可能维持宽松流动性、美元信用下降及地缘风险溢价多重因素推动，在2025年已上涨67%，创下自1979年以来最佳年度表现。进入2026年1月，美委冲突进一步点燃市场避险需求，纽约金价单日涨超130美元，伦敦现货黄金早盘快速拉升1%。白银受益于工业需求（光伏、AI算力）叠加投资属性增强，涨幅更为迅猛，2025年累计上涨达144%，并在2026年初延续强势。铂族金属方面，新年首个交易日，铂、钯开盘即大涨超11%，反映市场对稀有战略资源供应中断的高度担忧。
有色金属市场则呈现结构性分化明显的态势。原油相关衍生品（沥青等）短期上涨，长期有潜在上行可能，这是由于委内瑞拉重油原料中断推高炼厂利润。铜、铝等工业金属短期分化震荡，长期需求修复支撑价格，得益于国内“金三银四”消费旺季以及绿色转型需求回升。而锡、镍等新能源金属短期承压，长期不确定性高，全球贸易摩擦与衰退预期压制远期需求。尽管委内瑞拉拥有丰富的铝土矿、铁矿和金矿资源，但受限于设施老化与制裁，实际产量较小，对全球基础金属供给直接影响有限，工业金属价格更多受宏观流动性与中国经济政策预期主导。
市场分析人士对此次影响机制进行了总结，地缘政治风险上升使得避险情绪升温，资金涌入安全资产，导致黄金、白银、铂钯价格上涨；原油供应中断预期导致区域航运风险上升，运输成本增加，使得原油短期上涨，沥青也随之上涨；美元信用损耗加速“去美元化”趋势，非美结算推进，以美元计价的黄金价格上涨；美联储政策独立性受质疑，使得流动性偏宽松预期强化，提升了贵金属估值；全球产能接续与修复方面，OPEC+可填补缺口，美国增产潜力大，导致原油长期价格下降，回归基本面。
对于投资者，建议短期可关注贵金属回调后的布局机会，尤其是黄金ETF、白银矿业股等；警惕铂、钯等小众金属追高风险，其价格易受情绪驱动而剧烈波动；工业金属宜聚焦国内政策导向，重点关注铜铝在新能源与基建领域的应用弹性；同时密切跟踪1月美国非农数据、消费者信心指数及特朗普政府对美联储主席人选的提名进展，这些将是下一阶段市场走向的关键变量。
The impact of the US-Venezuela conflict on non-ferrous and precious metal markets
Recently, in early 2026, the geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela escalated sharply, evolving from diplomatic pressure to force regime change into a low-intensity military conflict. This "black swan" event not only disrupted the geopolitical landscape of Latin America but also rapidly spread to the global commodity market, especially causing sharp fluctuations in the precious metals and energy sectors.
From the perspective of market performance, the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver have risen significantly. The short-term risk-averse sentiment and the long-term trend of de-dollarization have jointly driven the upward trend. Specifically, gold has risen by 67% in 2025, marking its best annual performance since 1979, driven by multiple factors such as the possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining loose liquidity, the decline in the credit of the US dollar, and geopolitical risk premiums. Entering January 2026, the US-Commission conflict further ignited the market's demand for safe-haven assets. The price of gold in New York rose by more than 130 US dollars in a single day, and the spot gold in London rose rapidly by 1% in the early trading session. Silver has seen a more rapid increase, benefiting from industrial demand (photovoltaic and AI computing power) combined with enhanced investment attributes. By 2025, it had risen by 144% cumulatively and continued its strong performance in early 2026. In terms of platinum group metals, on the first trading day of the New Year, platinum and palladium opened up by more than 11%, reflecting the market's high concern over the disruption of the supply of rare strategic resources.
The non-ferrous metals market shows a significant trend of structural differentiation. Crude oil-related derivatives (such as asphalt) have risen in the short term and have the potential to rise in the long term. This is due to the disruption of heavy oil raw materials in Venezuela, which has pushed up the profits of refineries. The short-term divergence and fluctuation of industrial metals such as copper and aluminum have supported their prices in the long term, thanks to the domestic "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak season and the recovery of green transformation demand. However, new energy metals such as tin and nickel are under short-term pressure and have high long-term uncertainties. Global trade frictions and recession expectations suppress long-term demand. Although Venezuela is rich in bauxite, iron ore and gold resources, its actual output is relatively small due to aging facilities and sanctions, and its direct impact on global base metal supply is limited. The prices of industrial metals are more dominated by macro liquidity and expectations of China's economic policies.
Market analysts have summarized the mechanism of this impact. The rise in geopolitical risks has intensified risk aversion, with funds flowing into safe assets, leading to an increase in the prices of gold, silver, platinum and palladium. The expectation of disruptions in crude oil supply has led to an increase in regional shipping risks and transportation costs, causing a short-term rise in crude oil prices and a corresponding increase in asphalt prices. The credit loss of the US dollar has accelerated the trend of "de-dollarization", non-US settlement has advanced, and the price of gold denominated in US dollars has risen. The independence of the Federal Reserve's policy has been questioned, strengthening expectations of relatively loose liquidity and boosting the valuation of precious metals. In terms of global capacity succession and restoration, OPEC+ can fill the gap. The United States has great potential to increase production, which leads to a long-term decline in crude oil prices and a return to the fundamentals.
For investors, it is recommended that in the short term, they can pay attention to the layout opportunities after the correction of precious metals, especially gold ETFs, silver mining stocks, etc. Be vigilant against the high-risk pursuit of niche metals such as platinum and palladium, as their prices are prone to sharp fluctuations driven by sentiment. Industrial metals should focus on domestic policy guidance, with particular attention paid to the application flexibility of copper and aluminum in the fields of new energy and infrastructure. At the same time, closely monitor the January US non-farm payroll data, the consumer confidence index, and the progress of the Trump administration's nomination of the Federal Reserve chair. These will be key variables determining the market trend in the next stage.