沪市有色金属龙头企业在2025年的盈利表现十分亮眼。紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、华友钴业等沪市龙头2025年归母净利润全部刷新历史纪录，行业整体利润总额达5284亿元，同比增长25.6%，创历史新高。    

2025年有色金属行业处于强景气周期。全球降息预期推动黄金价格翻倍，地缘冲突强化了避险需求；新能源汽车、光伏拉动铜、铝、钴、锂需求刚性增长；而矿山资本开支不足、品位下降导致供给弹性显著收缩，形成“量价齐升”格局。叠加龙头企业全球化布局与产业链协同优势，盈利规模实现跨越式增长。    

从关键企业盈利与产能对比来看，2025年，紫金矿业预计归母净利润为510   - 520亿元，同比增幅达59%至62%，矿产金约90吨、矿产铜109万吨、矿产银437吨，计划2028年金产达130 - 140吨、铜150 -   160万吨，跻身全球前三；洛阳钼业预计归母净利润为200 -   208亿元，同比增幅48%至54%，以铜、钴为主力品种，新增巴西金矿（储量387.3万盎司），完成巴西金矿收购，加速黄金产能释放；华友钴业预计归母净利润为58.5   - 64.5亿元，同比增幅40.8%至55.24%，MHP原料自给率提升，下游材料业务恢复增长，上游印尼项目达产超产，绑定新能源金属一体化。    

值得注意的是，除上述三家企业外，中国铝业2024年利润已创历史最高（归母净利润124亿元，+85.38%）；2025年一季度沪市有色金属板块报喜率超九成，延续高景气。    

2025年沪市有色龙头已从“资源驱动”迈向“综合竞争力驱动”，即通过全球优质资源并购、新能源金属卡位、绿色低碳升级三重路径夯实护城河。若关注铜、锂等战略金属的中长期价值，可重点关注紫金矿业的铜金双轮扩张，以及洛阳钼业在铜钴与黄金的协同增效。不过，部分中小有色企业（如鸿发有色）2024年净利润同比下滑15.86%，凸显行业分化加剧，龙头集中度持续提升。    

Why did   a leading Shanghai-listed non-ferrous metal enterprise set a new profit   record in 2025?    

Leading   Shanghai-listed non-ferrous metal enterprises delivered outstanding profit   performance in 2025. Major Shanghai-listed companies such as ijin Mining,   CMOC Group, and Huayou Cobalt all set new historical records for attributable   net profit in 2025, with the industry's total profitreaching 528.4 billion   yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.6% and a new historical high.    

The   non-ferrous metal industry is in a strong upcycle in 2025. Global   expectations of interest rate cuts have driven gold prices to double, while   al conflicts have reinforced safe-haven demand; meanwhile, new energy   vehicles and photovoltaics are driving rigid growth in demand for copper,   aluminum, cobalt, and lithium. However, cient mining capital expenditure and   declining ore grades have significantly contracted supply elasticity,   creating a scenario of "rising volume and prices." Coupled with the   global layout and industrial chain synergy advantage enterprises, profit   scale has achieved leapfrog growth.    

From   a comparison of key enterprise profitability and production capacity, in   2025, Zijin Mining is projected to achieve a net profit attshareholders of 51   to 52 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, with   mineral gold production of apprtely 90 tons, mineral copper of 1.09 million   tons, and mineral silver of 437 tons. It plans to reach gold productio130-140   tons and copper of 1.5-1.6 million tons by 2028, entering the global top   three. CMOC Group is projected to achieve attributable to shareholders of 20   to 20.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 48% to 54%, focusing on   cor and cobalt, adding a Brazilian gold mine (reserves of 3.873 million   ounces), completing the acquisition of the Brazilian gold mine, and accelerating   the release of gold producton capacity. Huayou Cobalt is projected to achieve   a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.85 to 6.45 billion yuan, with   a year-on-y increase of 40.8% to 55.24%, as the self-sufficiency rate of MHP   raw materials improves, downstream material business resumes growth, upstr   projects in Indonesia reach and exceed production capacity, and it integrates   with new energy metals.    

It is   worth noting that, apart from the above three companies, Chinalco's 2024   profit has reached a historical high (net profit attributable to shaeholders   of 12.4 billion yuan,  85.38%); in the   first quarter of 2025, the reporting rate of positive earnings  the non-ferrous metals sector on the   Shanghai Stock Exchange exceeded 90%, continuing the high level of   prosperity.    

By   2025, leading Shanghai-listed non-ferrous metal companies have transitioned   from "resource-driven" to "comprehensive   competitiveness-driven" growth, soliding their moats through three   pathways: global high-quality resource M&A, strategic positioning in new   energy metals, and green low-carbon upgrades. For those focusing on the   mid-to-lonerm value of strategic metals like copper and lithium, particular   attention should be paid to Zijin Mining's dual-wheel expansion in copper and   gold, as well as China num's synergistic effects in copper, cobalt, and gold.   However, some small and medium-sized non-ferrous enterprises (such as Hongfa   Non-ferous) saw a 15.86% year-on-year decline in net profit in 2024,   highlighting the intensifying industry polarization and the continuous rise   in market concentration am    

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