霸刀分享-中国钢铁需求预计呈现逐步复苏态势
基于最新行业数据对3月中国钢铁需求的复苏态势进行了分析。2026年2月受春节假期影响，钢铁行业运行整体偏弱，下游工地与制造业普遍停工，钢材需求明显下降，行业PMI为46.7%，环比下降3.2个百分点。不过，随着节后全面复工、基建投资发力、制造业回暖及出口逐步恢复，3月进入需求修复窗口期。
3月中国钢铁需求整体呈现稳步复苏、持续回暖态势，但并非齐步走，而是呈现“结构性分化”。不同钢材品种需求恢复节奏差异显著，主要由下游行业复工进度与订单支撑力度决定。其中，中厚板需求有较强预期，主要因造船存量订单充足、工程机械出口增长、风电规模化发展，库存压力不大，价格或盘整上行；冷轧板卷稳定快速恢复，汽车、家电等终端需求韧性足，节后表现强于节前，供应充足但需求稳，向上空间有限；热轧板卷缓慢复苏，下游广泛但恢复不均，节后以贸易商备货为主，其他领域恢复偏慢，高库存加高产，短期承压，或先弱后强；建筑钢材复苏最弱且滞后明显，房建新开工项目少，基建稳健但资金面中性偏紧，需求释放慢于供给回升，高库存、高产量加上需求慢，价格承压最显著。
钢铁需求复苏有多重关键支撑因素。政策落地加速，各地基建项目集中开工，两会后或有实质性利好出台；出口边际改善，钢材出口报价显著低于印度、日本、土耳其，价格优势稳固；生产有序复产，2月中下旬起钢厂日产量连续回升，3月产量增幅较大，尤其建材因电弧炉复产明显；库存拐点临近，五大品种库存同比高于去年同期，预计拐点出现在3月下旬清明节前。然而，高库存与供应快速释放对价格形成阶段性压制。
China's steel demand is expected to show a gradual recovery trend.
Based on the latest industry data, the recovery trend of China's steel demand in March was analyzed. In February 2026, affected by the Spring Festval holiday, the overall operation of the steel industry was relatively weak; downstream construction sites and the manufacturing sector were generally shut down, leading to a significant decline in steel demand, with industry PMI at 46.7%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points month-on-month. However, with the full resumption of work after the holiday, the accfrastructure investment, the recovery of the manufacturing sector, and the gradual recovery of exports, March entered a window period for demand recovery.
In March, overall steel demand in China showed a steady recovery and sustained warming trend, but it was not uniform, instead exhibiting "structural divergence." ecovery pace varied significantly across different steel product categories, primarily determined by the resumption progress of downstream industries and the strength of order support. Specifically, demand for medium and thick plates ispected to be strong, driven by ample existing shipbuilding orders, growth in construction machinery exports, and the scaled development of wind power; with manageable inventory pressure, prices are likely to consolidate and rise. Cold-rolled coil demand recovered steadily and rapidly, supported by resilient end-demand from sectors like automobiles and home appliances; post-holiday performance was stronger than pre-h, with ample supply and stable demand, limiting upward potential. Hot-rolled coil demand recovered slowly, characterized by a broad downstream base but uneven recovery; post-holiday demand was dominated bestocking by traders, while recovery in other sectors was relatively slow; coupled with high inventory and high production, it faces short-term pressure and may weaken before strengthening. Construction steel demand showed weakest and most lagging recovery, with few new housing starts and infrastructure investment remaining steady but with a neutral-to-tight funding environment; demand release lagged behind supply recovery, agh inventory, high production, and slow demand, prices faced the most significant pressure.
The recovery of steel demand is supported by multiple key factors. Policy implementation is accelerating, with infrastructure projects starting up intensively across regions, and substantive favorable are expected to emerge after the Two Sessions; exports are showing marginal improvement, with steel export quotes significantly lower than those of India, Japan, and Turkey, solidifying the pric; production is resuming in an orderly manner, with daily steel output rising consecutively since mid-to-late February, leading to a significant increase in March output, particularly for constructiaterials due to the obvious resumption of electric arc furnaces; and the inventory turning point is approaching, as inventories of the five major steel products remain higher year-on-ye the turning point expected to occur in late March before the Qingming Festival. However, high inventories and rapid supply release are exerting stage-based downward pressur