霸刀分享-2026年1月全球粗钢产量下滑，钢铁行业调整期何去何从？
2026年1月全球粗钢产量数据出炉，全球粗钢产量为1.473亿吨，同比下滑6.5%，延续了2025年以来的收缩趋势。该数据覆盖全球69个纳入统计的国家/地区，其2024年产量占全球总量的98%，具备高度代表性。
从区域产量对比来看，亚洲和大洋洲产量为10760万吨，同比下降8.6%，其中中国主导下降（↓13.9%）、日本（↓0.5%）、韩国（↑5.0%）；欧盟（27国）产量1030万吨，同比下降2.3%，德国逆势增长15.0%，但整体承压；中东产量480万吨，同比增长12.6%，增速全球第一，显著对冲下行压力；非洲产量200万吨，同比增长5.8%，由阿尔及利亚、埃及、南非等国拉动；北美产量920万吨，同比下降0.6%，美国增长3.3%，但加拿大等拖累整体；俄罗斯+独联体+乌克兰产量650万吨，同比下降8.6%，俄罗斯预估下降7.4%，地缘因素持续影响；南美产量340万吨，同比下降1.2%，巴西下降1.4%，拉美需求偏弱。亚洲和大洋洲占比超73%，其大幅下滑是全球负增长的主因，而中东、非洲的双位数增长，反映新兴工业国产能扩张加速。
关键国家产量动态方面，中国预估产量7527万吨，同比下降13.9%，创近年单月最大降幅，主因“产能产量双控”政策深化及房地产用钢需求持续萎缩；印度产量1510万吨，同比增长10.5%，连续多年领跑主要产钢国；美国产量710万吨，同比增长3.3%，制造业回流与基建投资支撑；日本和韩国分别录得680万吨（↓0.5%）和560万吨（↑5.0%），日韩分化明显；伊朗和土耳其分别达260万吨（↑15.1%）和340万吨（↑5.8%），是中东区域高增长主力。
2026年1月全球粗钢产量下滑6.5%的核心驱动是亚洲（尤其中国）深度减产，而中东、非洲等区域增长未能完全抵消缺口。这一趋势与2025年全年产量（18.494亿吨，↓2%）及2025年12月（1.396亿吨，↓3.7%）形成连贯下行曲线，印证钢铁行业正经历结构性调整期。
在价格影响方面，供应收缩已推升无缝管等原料成本，现货价格面临上行压力；在产业机会方面，可重点关注中东、印度等增量市场配套的设备出口、技术合作方向。此外，2026年2月数据尚未发布，需观察春节后复产节奏是否带来环比改善。
Slump in global crude steel output in January 2026, where is the adjustment period of the steel industry going?
The global crude steel output data for January 2026 has come out, with the global crude steel production reaching 147.3 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, continuing the contraction trend since 2025. The data covers 69 countries/regions included in statistics, which accounted for 98% of the global total production in 2024, making it highly representative.
In terms of regional output comparison, Asia and Oceania produced 1.076 billion tons, down 8.6% year--year, with China leading the decline (↓13.9%), followed by Japan (↓0.5%) and South Korea (↑5.0%); the (27 countries) produced 103 million tons, down 2.3% year-on-year, with Germany growing against the trend by 15.%, but overall under pressure; the Middle East produced 48 million tons, up 12.6% year-on-year, the highest growth rate in the, significantly offsetting the downward pressure; Africa produced 20 million tons, up 5.8% year-on-year, driven by countries such as Algeria Egypt, and South Africa; North America produced 92 million tons, down 0.6% year-on-year, with the United States growing by 3.%, but Canada dragging down the overall performance; Russia CIS Ukraine produced 65 million tons, down 8.6% year-on-year, with Russia to decline by 7.4%, and geopolitical factors continuing to affect; South America produced 34 million tons, down 1.2% year-onyear, with Brazil declining by 1.4%, and Latin American demand remaining weak. The output of Asia and Oceania accounted for more than 73%, and significant decline was the main reason for the global negative growth, while the double-digit growth in the Middle East and Africa reflected the accelerated expansion of production capacity in emerging industrial countries
In terms of the dynamics of production in key countries, China's estimated production was 75.27 million tons, a year-onyear decrease of 13.9%, marking the largest monthly decline in recent years, mainly due to the deepening of the "dual control of production capacity and output" and the continuous contraction of steel demand from the real estate sector; India's production was 15.10 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, leading the major steel-producing countries for many years in a row; the United States produced 7.10 million tons, a year-onyear increase of 3.3%, supported by the reshoring of manufacturing and infrastructure investment; Japan and South Korea recorded 6.80 million tons (↓0.%) and 5.60 million tons (↑5.0%) respectively, with obvious differentiation between Japan and South Korea; Iran and Turkey reached 2.60 million (↑15.1%) and 3.40 million tons (↑5.8%) respectively, which are the main driving forces for high growth in the Middle East.
The key driver of the 6.5% year-on-year decline in global crude steel output in January 2026 was the deep in Asia (especially China), which was not fully offset by the growth in the Middle East, Africa and other regions. This trend is consistent with the downward trend in the fullyear output of 2025 (1,849.4 million tons, ↓2%) and the output of December 2025 (13.6 million tons, ↓3.7%), suggesting that the steel industry is undergoing a period of structural adjustment.
In terms of price impact, supply contraction has pushed up raw material costs such as seamless tubes, and spot prices are under upward pressure; in terms of industry, it is worth focusing on equipment exports and technological cooperation in line with incremental markets such as the Middle East and India. In addition, data for February 2026 has yet been released, and it is necessary to observe whether the pace of resumption of production after the Spring Festival brings about a month-on-month improvement