霸刀分享-钨价破新高，涨势能否持续？
钨价突破历史极值引发市场高度关注。黑钨精矿达53.60万元/吨、仲钨酸铵达79.00万元/吨，较2024年均价涨幅超200%，远超黄金白银表现。这一轮暴涨并非短期炒作，而是供给刚性收缩与新兴需求爆发共振的结果，且政策、资源、技术三重壁垒正将“紧平衡”推向“长期偏紧”。
从供给端来看，存在三重约束锁死增量。2025年第一批钨矿开采总量控制指标为5.8万吨，同比下降6.45%，江西等主产区减量超10%，湖北等低产区指标归零；全国钨原矿处理品位从2004年0.42%降至2016年0.28%，开采成本升至10万元/吨以上；矿山普遍放缓生产节奏，中小矿停产增多，行业流通规模持续收紧。
需求端则从传统刚需拓展到战略新增量。硬质合金领域，PCB刀具、数控机床等刚需稳定，占钨总需求40%以上，一季度景气度维持；光伏钨丝领域，薄片化硅片切割需求激增，替代高碳钢丝，翔鹭钨业已形成年产60亿米产能，渗透率提至20%；军工航天领域，五代机隐身涂层、穿甲弹芯、核聚变屏蔽材料需求旺盛，军工订单同比增42%，CRAFT项目钨硼中子屏蔽年需6000吨；AI服务器领域，高多层高速板微孔加工需求促使中钨高新加快推广新产品系列。
对于钨价未来走势，短期（2026年内），一季度上游供应紧张局面难解，叠加长单价格持续上调，价格高位震荡概率大；中期（2026 - 2027年），光大证券明确判断“钨价仍将处于高位运行”，主因配额长期缩减、超采钨占比大幅下降。不过，也存在一些不确定性因素，哈萨克斯坦巴库塔钨矿虽有潜力，但缺乏冶炼能力，需依赖中国加工后出口，短期难补缺口；国内钨回收率仅15%（全球平均35%），提升空间大但见效需时。
总体而言，供需偏紧格局不仅可持续，且正从“周期性紧张”升级为“结构性短缺”，政策管控、资源枯竭、战略需求三者叠加，使钨价中枢系统性上移。对于个人而言，若关注工业应用，可重点关注光伏钨丝、核聚变材料、高端PCB刀具等高增长细分方向；若侧重市场研判，需紧盯每年首批开采配额发布、主产区环保督察动态、海外矿山投产进度三大信号。
Tungsten prices hit a new high, can the upward trend continue?
The historical high price of tungsten has attracted significant market attention. Black tungsten ore has reached 536,000 yuanton, and ammonium metatungstate has reached 790,000 yuan/ton, with a rise of more than 200% compared the average price in 2024, far exceeding the performance of gold and silver. This round of surge is not a short-term speculation, but the result of the of rigid supply contraction and the outbreak of emerging demand, and the three barriers of policy, resources, and technology are pushing the "tight balance" to "long-term tightness.
From the supply side, there are three constraints that lock down the increment. In 2025, the total control index for the first batch ofungsten mining was 58,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.45%. The main producing areas such as Jiang saw a decrease of over 10%, and the indicators for low-yield areas such as Hubei were reduced to zero. The national tungsten concentrate processing grade from 0.42% in 2004 to 0.28% in 2016. The mining cost rose to over 10,000 yuan per ton. The production pace of mines generally slowed down, more small and medium-sized mines stopped production, and the industry circulation scale continued to tighten
On the demand side, it has expanded from traditional rigid demand to strategic new demand. In the field of hard alloy, the demand for PCB cut and CNC machine tools is stable, accounting for more than 40% of the total tungsten demand, and the first quarter's prosperity is maintained; in the of photovoltaic tungsten wire, the demand for cutting thin silicon wafers has increased sharply, replacing high-carbon steel wire, Xianglu Tung Industry has formed an annual production capacity of 6 billion meters, and the penetration rate has increased to 20%; In the field of military and aerospace, the demand for-generation aircraft stealth coatings, armor-piercing cores, and nuclear fusion shielding materials is strong, military orders are up 42% year-on-year and the annual demand for tungsten-boron neutron shielding in the CRAFT project is 6000 tons; in the field of AI servers, the for micro-hole processing of high-layer high-speed boards has prompted Central Tungsten to accelerate the promotion of new product series.
As for the future trend of tungsten prices, in the short term (within 2026), the tight supply situation in the will persist, coupled with the continuous increase in long-term contract prices, the probability of high price fluctuation is high; in the medium term (2026 - 227), Guangda Securities clearly judged that "tungsten prices will still be at a high level", mainly due to the long-term reduction of quotas a significant decrease in the proportion of over-mined tungsten. However, there are also some uncertain factors, although Kazakhstan Bakhta tungsten mine has, it lacks smelting capacity and relies on China for processing and export, which is difficult to make up for the gap in the short term; the domestic tungsten recovery is only 15% (the global average is 35%), and there is a lot of room for improvement, but it will take time to take effect
Overall, the tight pattern of supply and demand is not only sustainable, but also evolving from "cyclical tension" to "structural shortage". superposition of policy control, resource depletion and strategic demand is driving a systematic rise in the price center of tungsten. For individuals, if you focus on industrial applications, you can on high-growth sub-sectors such as photovoltaic tungsten wire, nuclear fusion materials, and high-end PCB cutters; if you focus market analysis, you need to closely monitor the release of the first batch of mining quotas each year, the dynamic environmental inspections in the main producing areas, and the progress of overseas production.